Black Friday store traffic decline in the U.S

Black Friday in the United States has entered a distinctly modern phase—one shaped less by frenzied crowds and jam-packed aisles and more by widespread digital engagement. As shoppers increasingly choose comfort, customization, and convenience, Black Friday 2025 marks a transformative moment in America’s online-driven retail landscape.

A Digital Surge Reshapes America’s Biggest Shopping Day

Online shopping has been accelerating for years, but this year’s Black Friday officially cemented the turning point. Millions of Americans bypassed physical stores altogether, opting for laptops, smartphones, and tablets to secure the year’s most anticipated bargains.

Retail trackers reported that overall Black Friday spending grew more than 5% year-over-year. However, the defining statistic was that the majority of purchases occurred online—a clear signal of shifting priorities in consumer behavior.

The hallmark chaos of past decades—jammed checkout lanes, crowded parking lots, and people camping outside storefronts at dawn—has been replaced by a more controlled, on-demand shopping culture centered on:

• Tailored digital offers
• Promo codes and instant online coupons
• Fast, free delivery options
• Drive-up and curbside pickup
• Flexible return policies

Digital convenience has surpassed physical urgency.

Thanksgiving Emerges as an Online Shopping Powerhouse

Thanksgiving Day has quietly evolved into a major e-commerce event. Instead of racing to stores, consumers stayed home and tapped into early Black Friday deals from their devices.

Adobe Analytics reported a 5.3% climb in Thanksgiving online sales, reaching US$6.4 billion.

Retailers have expanded their promotional calendars across the entire month of November, allowing shoppers to explore bargains gradually rather than rushing to buy everything on one day. Personalized recommendations and dynamic discounts have gradually strengthened the appeal of online shopping platforms.

Shrinking In-Store Crowds Reflect a Cautious Consumer Mood

While physical stores did see activity, foot traffic lacked the intensity of past years. Rising living costs, inflation, and uncertainty about job stability caused consumers to adopt a more measured approach to spending.

At Woodbury Common in New York, 67-year-old shopper Grace Curbelo shared that she was avoiding unnecessary purchases due to concerns about the broader economic climate.

Stores across the country experienced:

• Milder morning openings
• Shorter lines
• Minimal or nonexistent overnight queues

This year’s subdued turnout suggests that Americans are prioritizing financial discipline over longstanding holiday shopping rituals.

Higher Retail Prices Push Shoppers Toward Online Savings

Rising prices have played a crucial role in pushing consumers online. Inflation, lingering supply chain issues, and tariffs from the Trump administration have steadily increased retail costs. The Tax Foundation estimated that these tariffs alone added nearly 4.9 percentage points to retail prices.

Salesforce data showed:

• U.S. online prices increased 8% year-over-year
• Global prices rose only 5%

Salesforce analyst Caila Schwartz noted that U.S. shoppers have experienced the sharpest climb in average selling prices, prompting retailers to pass cost pressures onto consumers.

Online platforms offer clearer value to price-sensitive households through:

• Real-time price comparisons
• Stacked discounts
• Loyalty points and rewards
• Personalized algorithm-based promotions

This combination has made digital shopping especially appealing.

Economic Headwinds Slow Down Big-Ticket Purchases

Economic reality heavily influenced spending behavior this season:

• Unemployment hit a four-year high
• Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest point in seven months
• Many households postponed major purchases and travel plans

Consumers gravitated toward research-based purchasing rather than impulse buying, and price-tracking tools saw increased use throughout November.

Affluent Households Sustain Retail Growth

Despite challenges for middle-income families, wealthy shoppers continued to drive major retail categories—including luxury beauty, premium electronics, and home improvement.

Moody’s Analytics highlighted that Americans earning US$250,000 or more now account for nearly 48% of national consumer spending, compared to 35% in the mid-1990s.

This financially secure group helped maintain strong performance in key categories. At a Sephora in North Carolina, shopper Heather Cheatham showcased this trend, selecting fragrances and beauty items without concerns about rising prices.

A Subdued Black Friday Morning Across U.S. Malls

Retail analyst Marshal Cohen described unusually calm early-morning scenes in malls across New York and New Jersey. Foot traffic was steady but tame—far from the waves of shoppers seen in earlier years.

Some stores attempted to revive the traditional excitement:

• Target distributed swag bags to early visitors
• Walmart saw a midday uptick
• Best Buy offered limited in-store exclusives

In Atlanta, a modest crowd lined up at Walmart, where shoppers like Quantavius Shorter hoped to snag deals such as a US$298 Roku TV. Still, the overall sentiment was unmistakable: consumers now prioritize comfort over chaos.

Labor Strikes Stir Global Black Friday Disruptions

While U.S. stores experienced a calm retail weekend, Europe faced worker unrest:

• Amazon warehouse employees in Germany went on strike
• Zara stores in Spain prepared for labor demonstrations
• Starbucks expanded its U.S. strike to 26 locations

These disputes underscore persistent issues surrounding labor conditions during high-demand shopping periods.

Black Friday’s New Identity: Digital, Deliberate, and Consumer-Driven

Black Friday has evolved from a single-day retail frenzy into a more strategic, digitally driven shopping experience. The 2025 trends that will shape future U.S. retail include:

• Dominance of digital-first shopping
• Promotions spread throughout the holiday season
• Cautious, economically aware consumer behavior
• Strong influence of high-income households

As retailers shift their focus to Cyber Monday and the remainder of the holiday season, the path to success lies in digital innovation, personalized pricing, flexible incentives, and strategic online engagement.

Black Friday is no longer defined by the size of the crowd—it’s defined by convenience, strategy, and the empowered modern American shopper.